WILL THERE BE A POSITIVE MODERN AFTERMATH TO THE ARAB SPRING OF 2011

ARGUMENT/PROPOSITION

When invading a country, the US ACTS ON THE GROUND AS THE ARMY OF THE CENTER (this notion of the CENTER will be referred further on in terms of Arab countries), posing as the equilibrium-maker among warring/tribal/ethnic rivalries, but when it leaves, the US leaves BEFORE ANYTHING COULD TAKE ROOT, e.g. Iraq, Afghanistan [and certainly Syria].This implies the USA should have stayed in Iraq/Afghanistan or worse MUST STAY longer. How long? A HUNDRED YEARS?

It is faulty to believe that the US can achieve a good outcome by asserting military force and promptly exiting the conflict - LEAVING BEHIND A FRACTURED SOCIETY TO REBUILD ITSELF.

DEMOCRACY IS EARNED

You can't give it, teach it or force it. It either happens or it doesn't, and can be horrendous to watch develop. Admittedly, the Arab spring has taken many innocent lives, but until quite recently, Europeans too had been killing each other for centuries and the atrocities they committed in the 20th century (40 million dead & wounded in WWI) make Assad look like a rather pleasant and civil man. There is nothing in Syria's historical arc that leads to immediate democracy upon the overthrow of the Assad family. That is a status that Syria, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Qatar, the UAE, Yemen, Oman, and Saudi Arabia all have in common. To expect that there is a political party, with the voter's mandate behind it, that should be ready and waiting to take over is ludicrous. While it may be true that the transitions they must negotiate throughout the Middle East are incredibly difficult, this has been the case almost everywhere a democracy has arisen. Egypt is an exception. The new constitution of Egypt limit the term of the President elect to only 2 terms of 5 years each. El SISSI has officially declared that he will step down after only 1 term of 5 years.

News flash

News flash to Obama and pundits everywhere: the world never voted to make the USA the World Cop. That job belongs to the United Nations. If the U.N. is not working properly, then put your energies into fixing it. The principal missing theme is this: where is it written (certainly not in the USA Constitution) that AMERICA IS THE WORLD COP, JUDGE AND JURY? Ordinary cops get paid and like them, the USA gets paid. How? After raising the US flag on foreign soil, comes BUSINESS THEFT (which is the real reason for the intervention: consolidation of the new USA EMPIRE) of the reluctant host country’s Oil reserves, natural gas resources and mining concessions.  AND THE USA WONDER WHY SO MANY RIDICULE AND HATE THEM? IT IS ALL A MATTER OF HAVING 10 NUCLEAR POWERED ATTACK AIRCRAFT CARRIERS, THE MOST FORMIDABLE TECHNOLOGICALLY ADVANCED MISSILE STRIKE CAPABILITIES AND GREED FOR NATURAL RESSOURCES.

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CAN ARAB COUNTRIES FIND ON THEIR OWN A CENTER TO SOLVE PEACEFULLY THEIR INTERNAL DIVISIONS

Right now, the answer is no. why? Because none has a viable, respected, moderate center. Though the center exists in most Arab countries, it is weak and unorganized. It’s because these are pluralistic societies — mixtures of tribes and religious sects, namely Shiites, Sunnis, Christians, Kurds, Druze and Turkmen — but they lack any sense of citizenship or deep ethic of pluralism. That is, tolerance, cooperation and compromise. They could hold together as long as there was/is a dictator to “protect” (and divide) everyone from everyone else. But when the dictator goes, and you are a pluralistic society but lack pluralism, you can’t build anything because there is never enough trust for one community to cede power to another — not without an army of the center to protect everyone from everyone.

In short, the problem now across the Arab Middle East is poisoned hearts. Each tribe or sect believes it is in a rule-or-die struggle against the next, and when everyone believes this, it becomes self-fulfilling.

That means that Iraq, Yemen and possibly Syria will most likely devolve into self-governing, largely homogeneous, ethnic and religious units, like Kurdistan. And, maybe, AFTER THE ABOSOLUTE NECESSITY OF CRUSHING ISIS/ISIL, these units will find a modus vivendi, as happened in Lebanon after 14 years of civil war. And then maybe, over time, these smaller units will voluntarily come together into larger, more functional states.

AMERICA’S CREDIDILITY

I still believe that US response to ISIS/ISIL should be “arm, train, bomb and leave” as I mentioned several times in previous articles. The question is Is America’s credibility at stake here. NO…. Sunnis and Shiites have been fighting since the 7th century over who is the rightful heir to the Prophet Mohamed’s spiritual and political leadership… the fact is US credibility is not on the line. The shameful truth is that ARAB CIVILIZATION has missed every big modern global trend — THE RELIGIOUS REFORMATION, DEMOCRATIZATION, FEMINISM AND ENTREPRENEURIAL AND INNOVATIVE LAISSEZ-FAIRE.

The WEST has struggled for a long time, and still is, learning to tolerate “the other.” That struggle has to happen in the Arab/Moslem world, otherwise nothing anybody – local or foreign - does will matter.

AFTER ARAB AWAKENING

What is the difference between the Arab awakening in 2011 and South Africa’s transition to democracy in the 1990s? America? No. International sanctions? Maybe, somewhat. South Africa’s military stalemate in Namibia? (Because of the Cuban military intervention) Yes, partly. BUT MOSTLY…. IT WAS THE QUALITY OF LOCAL LEADERSHIP AND THE DEGREE OF TOLERANCE…. RIGHT NOW EGYPT IS HEADING IN THIS DIRECTION AND IN NO SMALL PART BECAUSE OF ONE MAN – PRESIDENT El SISSI.